Here are the earnings beats for Thursday: $SWKS $TRN $EXPE $ARRS $MCHP $AFFX $ISIL. Most interesting is EXPE which had a huge gap up, and MCHP which is hitting new 52 week highs. (Refer to the 52-week high edge in tech stocks)Read More
Popular stock events ostensibly provide to us an edge. Otherwise why would the media, and various stock scanners and tools provide us with this information? We have heard them all. 200 day moving averages, 200-50 death cross, 52-week highs, etc. But do they provide us actionable trading opportunities or are they all hype? I want to spend this week answering this question by conducting some research, hopefully I can find something that will provide an edge.
Test 1 – 52-week highs
Do new 52-week highs in a stock provide us with an edge? Should we buy that market leader as soon as it breaks and let momentum carry us forward or are we doomed to be shaken out? I am dying to know this because I too get caught in the hype...Read More
Today I was able to catch the gap fill in $NUS which I called out on Stocktwits. It posted a pretty large earnings and revenue surprise and gapped up. I bought some stock at at 104$ and sold it for a few points higher as a day trade and also put on a longer term position in the options by selling the November 120 Put which appreciated nicely as the stock bounced off the 104 level.
Short StraddlesRead More
What constitutes “evidence” when it comes to trading? There is a multitude of self-styled trading gurus and trading literature selling trading methods out there in the publishing and internet space. But what knowledge can we trust? Gurus make their living selling their trading ideas, most neglect to provide evidence that their methods work, others use selection bias to show you instances where their setups work and ignore situations where they don’t. We need a complete picture before we invest in their hypotheses. However, most of us are completely inept at testing these hypotheses and commit failures in logic along the way, let me explain.
Author of the book “You Are Not So Smart” David McRaney presents us with an important test of delusion:
Take the Wason Selection Task [...]...Read More
The market continues to rally and push new highs with the help of good earnings reported by the behemoth $GOOG. It beat earnings and revenue estimates with better that expected revenue generated from mobile devices. The stock is on our watchlist but not a buy considering its massive move to 1000. And a size-able pullback is unlikely so we will wait for a market structure to emerge before making a play. We will watch the 1000 level closely and see how long it can hold. $LVS had a large E&R beat with a gap up. $BHI gapped up high but had a large selling tail. Looking to buy this one if the gap fills. $ALGN was the huge winner with its enormous earnings and revenue beat. Moves like this take a while to digest so we will wait for a price structure to develop at these highs before making a play...Read More