10/31/2013 Earnings Beats

Here are the earnings beats for Thursday: $SWKS $TRN $EXPE $ARRS $MCHP $AFFX $ISIL. Most interesting is EXPE which had a huge gap up, and MCHP which is hitting new 52 week highs. (Refer to the 52-week high edge in tech stocks)

ISIL 10_31_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT AFFX 10_31_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT MCHP 10_31_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Hi Target ARRS 10_31_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT Hi Target EXPE 10_31_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Hi Target TRN 10_31_2013 LARGE EPS Beat SWKS 10_31_2013 SMALL EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT

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10/30/2013 Earnings Beats

Wednesday had some earnings beats but did not hold very big drives or gaps, nor any high quarterly price targets. Nonetheless they are candidates for pullback trades. Adding to the watchlist: $EA $SEE $GILD $DDD $SWI $GRMN $EIX

EIX 10_30_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT GRMN 10_30_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT SWI 10_30_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT DDD 10_30_2013 LARGE EPS_MISS REV_BEAT GILD 10_30_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Gap Up SEE 10_30_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Gap Up EA 10_30_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Gap Up

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10/29/2013 Earnings Beats

Sorry for the late post. Lost my flash drive but recovered it. Unfortunately today’s beats are at the office but will get them uploaded as soon as I can. Here are the earnings beats for yesterday: $XYL $IDTI $ALR $PBI $AMKR $FIS $JCI. Add those to this quarter’s watchlist.

JCI 10_29_2013 LARGE REV_BEAT Drive Up FIS 10_29_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT Drive Up AMKR 10_29_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Gap Up PBI 10_29_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_MISS ALR 10_29_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Gap Up IDTI 10_29_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Gap Up XYL 10_29_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Gap Up

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10/24/2013 Earnings Beats

The big earnings surprises for Thursday are $NOW $LUV  $HOT and $MCK. With MCK also announcing an acquisition of a competitor and upgrades. The first three stocks had drives up so intraday plays would have been profitable. MCK pulled back slightly.

MCK 10_24_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Gap Up Acquisition HOT 10_24_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Drive UP new highs LUV 10_24_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Drive UP new highs NOW 10_24_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Drive UP new highs

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10/23/2013 Earnings Beats

Late post. But here were the big earnings surprises on Wednesday: $BCR $BA $NSC $NOC $LO and $LL.

LL 10_23_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT Drive UP LO 10_23_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT GAP UP NOC 10_23_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT GAP UP NSC 10_23_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT GAP UP BA 10_23_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT GAP UP BCR 10_23_2013 LARGE EPS_BEAT REV_BEAT GAP UP

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New 52-week High Edge in Tech Stocks?

Popular stock events ostensibly provide to us an edge. Otherwise why would the media, and various stock scanners and tools provide us with this information? We have heard them all. 200 day moving averages, 200-50 death cross, 52-week highs, etc. But do they provide us actionable trading opportunities or are they all hype? I want to spend this week answering this question by conducting some research, hopefully I can find something that will provide an edge.

Test 1 – 52-week highs

Do new 52-week highs in a stock provide us with an edge? Should we buy that market leader as soon as it breaks and let momentum carry us forward or are we doomed to be shaken out? I am dying to know this because I too get caught in the hype...

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10/22/2013 Earnings Beats

Stocks with large earnings and revenue surprises: $NUS $KMB $FCX $FRX $LXK. Add to the watchlist. Looking for pullbacks to buy on days to come.

KMB 10_22_2013 NUS 10_22_2013 FCX 10_22_2013 FRX 10_22_2013

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10/22/2013 Trades

Yesterday’s trades were pretty much uneventful. A small gain in the $EMC short straddle were offset by a slightly larger loss in the $TXN Call Ratio Backspread.

Today I was able to catch the gap fill in $NUS which I called out on Stocktwits. It posted a pretty large earnings and revenue surprise and gapped up. I bought some stock at at 104$ and sold it for a few points higher as a day trade and also put on a longer term position in the options by selling the November 120 Put which appreciated nicely as the stock bounced off the 104 level.

NUS 10_22_2013 TRADE

Short Straddles

There weren’t very many ideal setups for short straddles going into tomorrow. I put on straddles for 3 tech stocks (not ideal, as tech stocks are more volatile overall): $ALTR $BRCM and $JNPR.

ShStraddles 10_22_2013

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Gurus – You Are Not So Smart

What constitutes “evidence” when it comes to trading? There is a multitude of self-styled trading gurus and trading literature selling trading methods out there in the publishing and internet space. But what knowledge can we trust? Gurus make their living selling their trading ideas, most neglect to provide evidence that their methods work, others use selection bias to show you instances where their setups work and ignore situations where they don’t. We need a complete picture before we invest in their hypotheses. However, most of us are completely inept at testing these hypotheses and commit failures in logic along the way, let me explain.

Author of the book “You Are Not So Smart” David McRaney presents us with an important test of delusion:

Take the Wason Selection Task [...]...

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10/18/2013 Earnings Beats

The market continues to rally and push new highs with the help of good earnings reported by the behemoth $GOOG. It beat earnings and revenue estimates with better that expected revenue generated from mobile devices. The stock is on our watchlist but not a buy considering its massive move to 1000. And a size-able pullback is unlikely so we will wait for a market structure to emerge before making a play. We will watch the 1000 level closely and see how long it can hold. $LVS had a large E&R beat with a gap up. $BHI gapped up high but had a large selling tail. Looking to buy this one if the gap fills. $ALGN was the huge winner with its enormous earnings and revenue beat. Moves like this take a while to digest so we will wait for a price structure to develop at these highs before making a play...

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